New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a flat, one-mile oval paved with a combination of asphalt and granite. The unique surface makes it one of the most unique venues on the NASCAR schedule. On Sunday, the NASCAR Cup Series returns to "The Magic Mile" for the 2024 USA Today 301, with the green flag dropping at 2:30 p.m. ET. Martin Truex Jr. led 254 laps on his way to victory last season at New Hampshire, but he's still looking for a victory that could clinch a spot in the NASCAR playoff picture. Truex also led 172 laps before finishing fourth at New Hampshire in 2022 and is a 9-2 co-favorite in the 2024 USA Today 301 odds.
Christopher Bell won in Loudon last year and is also 9-2 in the 2024 NASCAR at New Hampshire odds, while Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin is 6-1. Before making any 2024 NASCAR at New Hampshire predictions, be sure tosee the latest 2024 USA Today 301 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas.
Then it called its first winner of the 2024 season with Larson in Las Vegas for a 21-5 payout and predicted Hamlin's wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 18 winners since 2021, including nine last year and three in the first seven races this season. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2024 USA Today 301 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at New Hampshire leaderboard.
Top 2024 USA Today 301 predictions
For the 2024 USA Today 301, the model is high on Ty Gibbs, even though he's a 16-1 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at New Hampshire odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Joe Gibbs Racing has dominated at New Hampshire Motor Speedway since the next-gen car debuted in 2022, with Bell and Truex scoring victories and Denny Hamlin finishing top-10 in both races.
Gibbs finished 27th at New Hampshire last year but that came after he started dead last (36th) and "The Magic Mile" holds a special place in his heart. He scored his first career NASCAR victory there in the K&N Pro Series when he was 16. Gibbs has eight top-10 finishes this season, including a runner-up finish at Darlington as well as third-place runs in Austin and Atlanta.
Another massive shocker: Christopher Bell, one of the Vegas co-favorites at 9-2, barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in the 2024 USA Today 301 starting lineup. Bell has already clinched a spot in the NASCAR Cup Series postseason with two victories on the season but he's only eight in the standings thanks to five finishes outside the top 30.
Bell was a runner-up at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in 2021 and then won in Loudon last season. He would go on to win the pole at "The Magic Mile" in 2023 but only led one lap before eventually going on to finish 29th after a day plagued with issues.See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 NASCAR at New Hampshire picks
The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2024 USA Today 301 odds longer than 15-1 to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the USA Today 301 2024 at New Hampshire, and which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at New Hampshire odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 NASCAR at New Hampshire leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 18 winners, including three already this year.
2024 USA Today 301 odds, drivers, lineup
See full NASCAR at New Hampshire picks at SportsLine
Christopher Bell 9-2
Martin Truex Jr. 9-2
Denny Hamlin 6-1
Kyle Larson 13-2
Ryan Blaney 13-2
Joey Logano 17-2
William Byron 12-1
Chase Elliott 12-1
Brad Keselowski 16-1
Ty Gibbs 16-1
Tyler Reddick 20-1
Josh Berry 25-1
Chris Buescher 28-1
Ross Chastain 30-1
Kyle Busch 35-1
Bubba Wallace 40-1
Alex Bowman 55-1
Chase Briscoe 80-1
Noah Gragson 100-1
Austin Cindric 150-1
Daniel Suarez 150-1
Michael McDowell 200-1
Ryan Preece 250-1
Carson Hocevar 250-1
Todd Gilliland 300-1
Justin Haley 350-1
Austin Dillon 400-1
Erik Jones 400-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 400-1
Zane Smith 750-1
John Hunter Nemechek 750-1
Corey Lajoie 750-1
Harrison Burton 1000-1
Daniel Hemric 1500-1
Ty Dillon 5000-1
Kaz Grala 5000-1
